No fewer than five people approached me at church yesterday, looking for good news and reassurance. Can Romney still win? Yes, of course. Will Romney win? Yes, of course. Nobody asked me the question I’ve been asking myself for quite some time: can Obama win?
Very, very doubtful.
But yes, he can still win. He’s losing independents by as much as 22 points, as indicated by today’s CNN poll; he’s battling for states that should’ve been sewn up for him months ago, and he’s an incumbent well under 50% the day before the election. He’s panicked and peevish while his opponent is calm and confident. Paul Ryan can draw a crowd of over 6,000 in deep blue Minnesota, but the sitting vice president can only get 1,100 folks to come hear him in Wisconsin. And Mitt Romney’s crowd of 30,000+ in PA yesterday
has to be sending a few shivers up Obama’s spine.
Candidates in his position lose far more often than not, but could lightning strike and we wake up Wednesday morning with the harsh reality of four more years of this failed presidency darkening the horizon?
Yes. Unlikely, but possible.
That’s probably why I’m repeatedly asked by those on the other side what I’m going to do if Obama wins. The answer is that I’m not going to like it, and I’ll have to make good on a couple of stupid bets I’ve made on Facebook. PJG is going to make me a new profile pic in which I announce that he is right about everything, and I, myself, am limburger cheese. And I’ve promised another friend that if Romney doesn’t get at least 300 electoral votes, I’m going to reregister as a Democrat. (What I didn’t tell him when I made the bet is that the prospect of being a registered Democrat doesn’t scare me all that much and might even be sort of fun. I’m not a big fan of the Utah GOP, and this state, frankly, could use more Mormon Democrats.)
There’s a radio station in Salt Lake City that has already started playing all Christmas music all the time. Bummed out after the 2008 elections, I tuned out the Internet and talk radio and all other reminders of the electoral debacle and listened to that station exclusively for two days. I then felt much better and got on with my life. Should Obama manage to squeak this thing out, I presume I will probably take the same prescription this time around.
Christmas music, you see, is a clear reminder that God is in charge.
Ultimately, that’s the only perspective that matters. The will of the Lord is not about to be thwarted by something as petty as an election. It’s those who don’t believe there is a Lord that will be devastated when their guy loses, because it’s impossible for them to see anything bigger than the here and now. Faith is what keeps you from collapsing along with a failed candidate.
Of course, faith is also why I’m more confident about Romney’s victory than I’ve been about any election that I can remember. Along with my faith in God, I have faith that America recognizes that this president is a failure, and that there are brighter days ahead. I have faith in the reality that elections usually break one way or the other, and in tight races, they generally break against unpopular incumbents. I have faith in the reality that the nail-biter that was 2000 is an exception, and that the winner of the popular vote – i.e. Romney – will have no trouble seeing that win translate into a decisive electoral college victory.
Still, if that faith isn’t enough for you to hang your hat on, then perhaps I can steer you to the websites that have more concrete info. For intelligent and confident Romney cheerleading backed up with hard facts, I recommend Hugh Hewitt’s blog. If you still cower in fear of Nate Silver’s infallible genius, perhaps this or this solid evidence of Silver’s manifestly fallible flaws might be helpful. Watch as David Axelrod offers no rebuttal to the information showing Romney wiping out the entirety of Obama’s 2008 margin of victory in 2012 early voting. Read the specifics of the GOP ground game that is being executed with more efficiency and enthusiasm than any GOTV effort in history. Or just watch the final speeches by both candidates. Which one thinks he’s winning?
If hard facts aren’t your thing and superstition helps you, then know that every Republican who has ever run for president on November 6 has won the election. Also the Redskins lost their football game on the Sunday before the election, which means the party out of power wins the election, which has been what happened 17 out of 18 of the last elections. Also, I’m pretty sure that I saw Romney’s face burned into my toast this morning, which is a good sign too, right?
My final prediction – Romney wins early and wins big, taking swing states NC, VA, FL, OH, NH, and PA, while coming up short in IA, NV, and MI. Minnesota could surprise, but I think we’re looking at a Romney electoral victory of 308 to 230, with a popular vote of Romney 52%, Obama 47%, and third-party losers at 1%.
And when I’m more right than Nate Silver is, I have faith that the New York Times won’t notice. I also have faith that I’ll be too busy watching and listening to the weeping and wailing of lefty pundits to spend any time on Christmas music. Ultimately, I have faith that God is in charge, and that precludes panic either way.
“Look unto me in every thought; doubt not; fear not.”
– Doctrine and Covenants 6:36
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