Month: January 2008

That'sright, kids. No time to blog this morning, as I am heading into enemy territory. I'll be in Chicago on a consulting gig until Saturday morning. I've never been to Chicago, except in the airport. Should be fun. What say you, Andy? Want to meet up and share a Fresca between friends? You name the ... Read more

Read this over at The Onion. It made me laugh, which is hard to do today. (Warning: Some profanity amid the satire) ... Read more

Thepost-mortems are in full swing, each more depressing than the last. They range from Hugh Hewitt’s Pollyannish optimism – “Romney can still win this!” – to Michael Graham at National Review, who more aptly expresses my own sentiments as follows:

So it is over. Finished. In November, we'll be sending out our most liberal,

... Read more

Ishould have stopped caring after New Hampshire. I'm trying to stop caring now.  John McCain is now the Republican nominee. If John McCain wins the presidency, the Republican Party is done for at least two decades.  If the Democrat wins, conservatives may be able to reclaim the party in 2010.  I'm voting for the Democrat, ... Read more

Seewhat I mean? ... Read more

...and to make up 1/3 of the final vote total.  Mitt's Intrade numbers hit bottom around 10. Now they're in the mid-thirties, whereas McCain is in the sixties, down twenty points from a few minutes ago.  I'm revising my earlier Intrade faith. I just don't think it's a reliable predictor when a race is this ... Read more

...of which there are over a million. And all polls show Romney overperforming among early voters.  First reports said that the exits DID include absentees, which sent Mitt's Intrade numbers to the cellar. I think Mitt on Intrade would be a pretty good buy right now.  ... Read more

Mitt'sIntrade numbers popped at 5:00, and AP reported that the exit polls showed that more than half of voters listed the economy as their number one issue, which is good for Mitt. Then National Review posted the preliminary exits: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent. Mitt's Intrade numbers have ... Read more

Butthey're not a very large sample size. From campaignspot.nationalreview.com: For Those Seeking The Usual Leaks... I'm told not to expect any word of exit polls until around 5 p.m. ... UPDATE: For extremely localized results, the Naples Daily News is publishing its exit poll results as they get them. Their numbers so far: Republican presidential ... Read more

Therace remains excruciatingly close in Florida, and the InTrade numbers provide no insight. Romney and McCain keep trading the lead, although McCain is up more often than not. Still, when it's this close, I doubt a 53/47 InTrade split has much predictive value. The investors, it seems, are looking for a winner, and they can't ... Read more