In reference to Hollywood, writer William Goldman once famously remarked that “no one knows anything.”
It’s true in Hollywood, but it’s especially true in the world of politics. If you doubt it, look at Dick Morris, however unpleasant it may be to do so.
Morris is a weasel who’s worked for both Jesse Helms and Bill Clinton. He is also a guy who has made an entire career out of knowing nothing. After leaving the Clintons because he was getting his toes sucked by prostitutes, Morris has inflicted his colossally boneheaded prognostication skills on the public at large. Some examples:
In 1998, he predicted a huge Republican tidal wave. Instead, the Republicans lost seats in both houses of Congress.
In 2000, he assured us the next president would be Al Gore, and by a comfortable margin. Oops.
In 2002, Morris was certain the Democrats were going to retake both houses of Congress. Instead, they lost seats – and control of the US Senate.
Morris promised us that 2004 would end with the election of President John Kerry. Oops again.
All of this teaches us one immutable truth: Dick Morris is an idiot.
Yet people keep paying him money, and they listen to what he has to say. Why? Seriously, why? He was right about the Republican debacle in 2006, but who wasn’t? You’d have to be either Beavis and/or Butthead to have whiffed it on that one. The only reason I had a sliver of hope that Republicans might have been able to pull ‘06 out of the crapper was that Dick Morris was predicting the opposite.
The surest way to easy money is to bet against Dick Morris.
So what does this moron have to say about ’08? Well, after having written a ludicrous book about the presidential race between Hillary and Condoleeza Rice, who was never even close to being a candidate, Morris concludes that Hillary is unstoppable. The GOP is washed out until 2010, when they’ll sweep back into power on a 1994-style tidal wave.
Wrong. Here’s what’s going to happen.
On the Democratic side, Hillary will stumble a bit in Iowa, but she’ll come roaring back in New Hampshire and will sew up the nomination in short order after that.
The Republican side will become interesting when Mitt Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire by comfortable margins. Thompson and McCain will then be gone, and Huckabee, with a strong showing in Iowa, will limp along until Super Tuesday, when a lack of money and organization will force him to declare a moral victory and disappear. That leaves Romney and Giulani still standing, despite the fact that Rudy won’t have won anything yet. Unfortunately, everyone already expects Romney to take the first two early contests, so he won’t get the huge bounce in media coverage he’s looking for. What he will get, though, is the unified force of the “Anyone but Rudy” vote, which is currently diluted by McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee, all of whom will be history by February. Giulani’s aura of inevitability will vanish, as will the idea that the way to beat Hillary is to nominate a pro-choice, anti-gun, thrice-divorced malcontent. Giuliani wins Florida, and that’s it. He’s done.
Romney, to everyone’s surprise, becomes the Republican nominee.
Suddenly, with a clear choice between Hillary and Romney, everyone remembers why they hated Hillary in the first place. Pundits will make hay out of Romney’s Mormonism – Dick Morris insists it makes him unelectable – but America will compare Mormonism to Clintonism, and even the hardcore Evangelicals will hold their noses and vote against Hillary. The Bush haters will have a harder time connecting Mitt to Bush than they thought, since Mitt will continue to run against Washington, of which Hillary is the living embodiment of everything that’s wrong therewith. Faced with the sad reality of perpetuating a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton dynasty for another eight years, America, despite all of their problems with W, will elect another Republican.
“Hail to the Chief” will play for President Mitt Romney in January of 2009.
The unease with Republicans will be reflected in the Congress, where Democrats will gain seats in both the the House and Senate, yet be unable to get a large enough margin to actually do anything. As for 2010, who the heck knows? It depends on Romney. The only solid info we have is that Morris says the Repubs will win big, so expect massive Democrat gains.
There! See how easy that is? So where’s my book deal?