“But the polls, Stallion! The polls!”

Ordinarily, I’d schedule this to post at midnight for the next day, but tomorrow is September 11, a day unsuitable for political horserace analysis. So if I get this in under the wire, I’ll appear less partisan and more respectful, right?


I’ve endured some Facebook mockery for my refusal to back down from my Romney landslide prediction. “Did you watch the same two conventions I did?” my brilliant-albeit-leftist cousin snarked.

Yes, I did.

“Still predicting a Romney landslide?” asked another brilliant-yet-lefty friend.

Yes, I am.

“But the polls! What about the polls?!” cry the panicking conservatives.

What about them?

“They stink!”

No, they don’t.

The respected TIPP poll has Romney down by only 2% among registered, not likely, voters in a sample where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 5%. That’s a 5-point swing in Romney’s direction from last month.

Rasmussen, which, along with Pew Research was the only outfit that got the final number exactly right in 2008, has Romney down by 1% in its daily tracking poll of swing states.  The RCP average, which is tainted by a bunch of really bad polls that I’ll discuss below, has Romney only down by 2, whereas four years ago, Obama was down by 2.2 in the same average.

Get a grip, people!

Folks, there was a convention bounce. It’s fading, just as the GOP bounce faded. (There was about a four to five point bounce last weekend, too, but you didn’t see the level of Democratic panic you’re seeing among some squishy conservatives in the past couple of days.) The DNC had its moments, but Obama’s flat speech was a buzzkill; the economy is still terrible, and this election isn’t going to be about anything other than that.  All things considered, the race hasn’t really changed at all, and that’s good, because right now, voter enthusiasm, voter affiliation, and raw volume of campaign dollars all heavily favor Romney.

But, yes, there are some lousy polls floating around.  Let’s take a look at them.

Today’s CNN poll has Obama actually pulling a majority! That’s right –  52% to Romney’s paltry  46%. Holy gazumbas! This race is over. Call off the dogs. The fat lady literally sang around the same time that Biden was speaking. 

Except – wait a minute.

In that same poll, Romney wins independents by a whopping 14%. 14%! That’s huge! Obama won independents by only 8% in 2008. So the president’s had a negative swing of 22 points among independents, and yet he’s still able to pull out vote totals similar to his 2008 victory? Man, he must be pulling a lot of Republicans into the mix.

Uh, actually, no. The CNN poll presumes that 96% of Republicans support Romney. In 2008, only 91% of Republicans voted for McCain. So Obama has lost a huge chunk of independents and the sliver of Republicans he got last time. So how does he still get the same vote totals?!

Democrats!! Democrats!! Democrats!! Scads and scads of Democrats! Democrats as far as the eye can see! Hordes of Democrats who are ever so much more excited to support Obama than they were in 2008, back before he was a failure and a disappointment!

Bottom line: this poll claims the partisan breakdown of voters will favor Democrats by a ridiculously huge margin of twelve points. Who believes that will be the party breakdown of the final vote totals? For crying out loud, Democrats in 2008 only had a nine point advantage, which was still the highest partisan advantage they’ve enjoyed in the last four elections. In 2010, Democrats had only a three-point advantage. And, as I pointed out here, Rasmussen now claims that Republicans actually have a four point advantage! How on earth can anyone look at this poll with anything but contempt?

But some of these polls are not content just to radically oversample Democrats. This absurd Public Policy Polling poll has Romney losing to Obama in Ohio, 50-45. And it also presumes women account for 60% of Ohio’s population, which means it knows better than the census, which says only 51% of Ohioans are female. (Single fellas, move to Ohio, where the odds are in your favor!) See,women are more likely to vote Obama than men, so to get to a grossly inflated Democratic sample, they had to lean heavily on the ladies.

How is it possible to take such a poll seriously?

The Romney campaign remains confident and assured. If stupid polls like these are enough for you to go wobbly, then you deserve to lose.

Republicans, grow a spine, will ya?

Daniel Z. Was Right: Plus other thoughts on the state of the race
"He jumped the gun, Stallion! He jumped the gun!"

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