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Pre-Election Spine Update

As we head into the final weekend…

The Obama pre-gloaters who went silent after their first debate debacle are now starting to get comfortable in mocking me some more. Turns out Obama, you may have heard, is going to win after all. Today he holds a commanding 47.4% to 47.3% national lead against Romney in the RealClearPolitics average of all polls. Our old buddy Nate Silver, whose predictions are more reliable than actual election results according to lefties, is making wagers with MSNBC hacks that Obama’s got an 8-10 chance of being reelected. Swing state polls which show Romney winning independents handily still show Obama winning by anywhere from 2 to 3 points in some of these states, because, according to the pollsters, more Democrats are going to turn out this time than when Obama was the 2008 Messiah.

And all this is enough to get Republicans to “go wobbly,” to use Mrs. Thatcher’s phrase. After all, Chris Christie said nice things about Obama, doncha know, and Obama got his picture taken hugging people who were devastated by Hurricane Sandy. Even Romney landslide advocate Dick Morris noticed “sudden danger signs” which mainly consist of the fact that Rasmussen’s polls dropped from 49-47 Romney to 48-48 today. And, to add insult to injury, Mrs. Cornell saw a glowing report about Obama’s response to Sandy that led her to come downstairs and solemnly announce, “It’s over. Obama wins.” And then, just a few minutes ago, my brother-in-law texted me and said, “what’s the good news on the election?”

Folks, it’s all good news. There’s a lot of it. And it doesn’t require too much spine to accept it, although spine would certainly help.

Let’s step back from the polls, please, and focus on actual votes. Because people are actually voting, and according to credible sources that are not typically Romney cheerleaders, they’re voting for Romney far more than anybody, including Romney partisans, could have anticipated. Read Karl Rove as he breaks it down state-by-state. Experts presume Romney will win the votes cast on Election Day, but Obama was supposed to swamp the Republicans in early voting to make up the difference.  He’s not. He’s nowhere close. So regardless of what the polls say, he’s got to seriously overperform on Election Day, matching or exceeding his 2008 numbers, to pull this out. There isn’t anyone who genuinely believes that’s going to happen.

“But Stallion! But Stallion! He looks so presidential in responding to Sandy!”

He does? Certainly he got the photo op in early, and with a popular Republican governor to boot. But as days go by and the unalleviated suffering in New York and New Jersey intensifies, how will people respond as they read more stories about New Yorkers defecating in the halls of their apartment buildings? The federal response, it seems to me, hasn’t been all that stellar. Lack of food, water, gas, transportation, and other basic necessities doesn’t really speak well for Obama’s capacities as Mr. Fix-It. Another photo op in the midst of that kind of degradation will look opportunistic.

The narrative out of Sandy is nothing but misery. I don’t see how that’s helpful to Obama at all.

But, still, if actual voting numbers and common sense aren’t enough, then let me go anecdotal on you. Which candidate is speaking with confidence, passion and optimism? Which one sounds panicked, angry, petulant? A candidate’s behavior tells you exactly where they think they are in the race. Romney calls for change; Obama calls for “revenge.” The Vengeance Candidate doesn’t sound like a winner to me.

Today, Romney drew a crowd of 6,000 people in Milwaukee, a city in a state that we were told was bluer than blue just one month ago. In contrast, President Obama could only draw 2,600 people to his rally in Green Bay the day before, a number even the New York Times called “not impressive.” Check out this picture  taken before a Romney rally in Virginia. 
This happened on the same day Vice President Bident spoke to an Iowa crowd of a paltry 475 people.

If that doesn’t give you a little more spine, what will?

Romney is going in to blue states in a big way and outspending Obama in Pennsylvania by 6-1, in a state where one prominent Tea Party media outlet notes that “there is a tangible sense–seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time–that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.”

Oh, wait. That’s not a Tea Party group. That’s a report from the New York Times.

Spine, people!

If all that isn’t enough, if the polls are still keeping you up at night, if the RCP average .1% Obama lead still seems insurmountable, then consider this. If the race really is that close, and the contest stands at 47.4% to 47.3%, those are still Romney landslide numbers. Why? Because they add up to 94.7%, which means that 5.3% are unaccounted for. If you generously lop off 1.3% of the undecideds as dips who will throw their vote away on some loser third party candidate, that leaves 4% of people who are going to vote, who have lived through the Obama presidential debacle of the past four years, and still can’t bring themselves to vote for Mr. O. Where do you think those votes are going? (Hint: if history is any guide, they’re going 8 to 1 against the incumbent.)

Romney’s going to win this. It’s blindingly obvious. Not only am I weary of those who think Obama’s still going to come out on top, I’m also weary of those who say weaselly things like “Romney can still pull this thing out.” At this point, I’m wondering how it is Obama can pull this thing out. Romney is conducting himself like a winner, and actual votes suggest he’s on his way to being a winner. Obama’s is flailing like a desperate man who knows that a colossal humiliation is only four days away.

One final note. This final observation is completely unscientific. It has no objective, external evidence to support it, either statistical or anecdotal. It is entirely personal, but, to my way of thinking, it’s the best evidence I’ve got.

I’ve worked in politics for a good deal of my adult life. I’ve worked on winning campaigns; I’ve worked on losing campaigns. I’ve seen my candidate come from behind when they had no chance and win it all; I’ve seen my incumbent candidate, who everyone thinks is a prohibitive favorite, go down in flames. I’ve run for office myself and lost by six votes.

I know what it feels like to win, and I know what it feels like to lose. And in every case, I’ve known whether my guy was going to cross the finish line first or come up short long before the race was over, and I’ve been right every time.

Romney wins this thing. Handily.


The Myth of Voter Suppression
Doubt Not; Fear Not

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